Panic is not a pretty sight, especially when it’s the result of political hubris. But there it is in full display as Democrats and liberals realize that some of the newly recognized problems of the Affordable Care Act could create millions of new Republican voters in 2016.
Notice that I didn’t say “create Republicans,” but “Republican voters”—that is, millions of voters who may be independent or even politically apathetic. Most won’t be Republicans, just eager to vote against the party that’s made life and health insurance so difficult.
Why would these voters be so angry?
Here Comes the Penalty
Democrats’ first problem is the penalty that an estimated 6 million Americans will have to pay for not having health insurance. Those penalties for 2014 will range from the greater of $95 to 1 percent of the uninsured’s income. The 2015 penalty—which will be paid in 2016, a presidential election year—rises to the greater of $325 to 2 percent of income.
Republicans warned against penalizing Americans who were uninsured—which could include jail after the IRS gets involved—since the primary reason people gave for being uninsured was they couldn’t afford it. Democrats dismissed the criticism; they assured everyone that when the taxpayer subsidies were included, everyone could afford coverage.
As part of political damage control, Democrats at the Department of Health and Human services, which manages Obamacare, have provided a number of exemptions. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has estimated that perhaps 90 percent of the uninsured will qualify for an exemption. But finding out about those exemptions can be difficult, and most of the uninsured won’t know about them.
Democrats: Meet Sara, Uninsured and a Penalty Payer
My wife told me about her friend Sara, an older, single woman who says she is lower-income and has decided she can’t afford Obama’s “affordable” coverage. She said she checked and the premiums would cost her about $1,000 a month.
Now, it’s possible that Sara is mistaken and could get less-expensive coverage or a subsidy that would make coverage affordable. But even if she could, Sara doesn’t think she can, and that’s the Democrats’ problem.
Sara is both frustrated and demoralized by the process—not to mention angry that she will have to pay the penalty. I don’t know Sara’s politics, but it’s a pretty good guess she won’t be voting Democratic in the next election.
And Then There’s the “Clawback”
In order to get their health insurance subsidy, people had to estimate their next year’s income months in advance. If they underestimated their income, and therefore received a larger subsidy than they should have, they will have to pay back the difference. An estimated 3.4 million people will face the Obamacare “clawback”—which could be in the thousands of dollars.
As another effort at damage control, Democrats at HHS decided to cap the subsidy clawback to $2,500 per person so as to try and minimize the political fallout. But that’s only if your revised income estimate is under 400 percent of FPL. If your income exceeded 400 percent, you will owe the whole subsidy.
Newly Canceled Policies
There was a lot of media coverage last year about the estimated 4.7 million people who had their health insurance policies cancelled because their current coverage didn’t include all of Obamacare’s restrictions and mandates.
As yet another example of damage control, Obama decided to allow the states to postpone the date people had to have Obamacare-qualified coverage.
Democrats: Meet My Wife, Whose Policy Was Recently Canceled
My wife was in that group, but her insurer canceled the policy last fall because it wasn’t Obamacare-qualified, forcing her to get a policy that was. She did, but it wasn’t cheap. She is now paying 50 percent more for virtually the same policy she had with the same health insurer; and it would have been much more expensive except she increased her deductible from $2,500 to $6,000.
It’s a pretty good bet my wife will not be voting for Democrats in the next election.
Lots of health policy experts repeatedly warned Democrats both before and after Obamacare’s passage what the law would do to health insurance premiums. I, along with retired actuary Mark Litow, explained in the Wall Street Journal why many states would see 100 percent increase in premiums. They and Obama dismissed the criticisms—and still do.
Botched Tax Returns
And now we learn that the Obama administration has sent out the wrong tax information to some 800,000 people. The government is asking those affected to withhold filing their taxes until after they get a new form, which it says should be out in March.
The White House dismissed the problem by claiming it affects fewer than 1 percent of tax filers, and that the vast majority of them haven’t filed their taxes yet. Maybe, but you cannot believe anything this administration says, because it always understates its problems.
Lots of Americans try to file their taxes as early as possible because they have plans for their refunds. For those who have already filed, the government will have to figure out what to do. For those who haven’t, they will just have to wait to file and get their return.
Again, many of these voters will be angered by the Obama administration’s repeated incompetence and may want to express that dissatisfaction at the polls.
Many Democrats recognize all of these failures create real problems for them, which is why they are in full panic mode—including postponing the enrollment deadline. Unlike the president, most of them want to get elected again.