April 22 marks the 45th Earth Day and those concerned about the earth and its environment have much to celebrate.
For one thing, the gradual temperature rise we saw in the 1980s and ‘90s stopped about 17 years ago, and there has been little or no global warming since, forcing the New York Times to wonder “What to Make of the Warming Plateau.”
Of course, temperatures may start to climb again in the future. But many scientists see a pattern based on sunspot activity—as opposed to human activity. Sunspots increased between 1950 and 1998, but have been declining since. And that reduced sun spot activity has been correlated with cooler temperatures on earth.
Another reason to celebrate: violent storms have declined. While 2004 and 2011 had the highest reported number of tornados, the Washington Post wondered a month ago why so few tornados had appeared. USA Today was wondering the same thing last year. (Hint: one reason is that long-lasting cold winter that wasn’t supposed to be happening in the first place).
But what about hurricanes? The Weather Channel says we’ve been in a period of quiet hurricane activity. “In the Atlantic basin, just nine tropical cyclones formed in 2014, of which eight were named. On both counts it was the sparsest Atlantic hurricane season since 1997, when there were also eight named and nine total tropical cyclones.” Though hurricane activity in the Pacific was stronger.
A third reason: The U.S. Energy Information Administration says that carbon dioxide emissions from generating electricity were declining for several years, down to about 1994 levels. And even though the levels have increased slightly the past two years, those increases are much smaller than the growth in the economy.
One reason for the decline is that many power plants have shifted from burning coal to natural gas, which releases about half the CO2 coal does. Another reason is that renewable energy sources such as solar and especially wind power have increased, even though they still only account for less than 5 percent of U.S. power plants’ energy source.
The fourth reason is mixed. For several years concerns have been raised that the polar ice caps are melting, which would raise sea levels and exacerbate warming. But the Washington Post points out that while Arctic ice has been declining, Antarctic ice has been growing. “At opposite ends of the world, trends in sea ice coverage are in stark opposition. Arctic sea ice coverage remains depressed, while Antarctic levels have achieved a record high for the second straight year.”
That’s an unfortunate turnaround for the Arctic because last year at this time Arctic ice was increasing, with the U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colorado, reporting that Arctic sea ice had expanded at record levels, and that volume grew by 50 percent in 2013.
And there is perhaps one more reason to celebrate: While the atmospheric CO2 level has grown, to 400 parts per million (ppm), that increase doesn’t seem to be driving up global temperatures, since they have remained relatively stable. That lack of correlation has some scientists suggesting that the computer models that make global warming predictions may be putting too much weight on carbon dioxide. We are talking about 400 parts per million.
While I am not an environmental scientist—but then neither are the vast majority of media and politicians who rail about global warming—the temperature stabilization, the reduced storm activity, the reduction in energy-related carbon emissions and the growth in Antarctic ice would seem like good news for Earth Day—at least for conservatives.
Something tells me that liberals aren’t looking for a reason to celebrate.