Liberals and the media immediately pounced on a just-released Gallup survey showing that the uninsured rate has declined from 17.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013 to 15.9 percent so far in 2014. Their unanimous conclusion? Obamacare is finally working.
But just as when Obamacare was being drafted and debated, the media have failed to ask any informed or probing questions.
For example, since Barack Obama became president, the uninsured-rate rollercoaster has climbed three times and fallen just as many. Gallup pegged the uninsured rate at 16.1 percent in 2Q 2011, before shooting up to 17.5 percent in Q1 2012, and falling again to 16.3 percent in Q1 2013, only to start rising again to 18.0 percent.
And almost all of those peaks and valleys were before Obamacare officially started on January 1—though “officially started” is a little misleading since the president has postponed so many provisions.
The current decline began last fall, but that wasn’t because of Obamacare, because the coverage for those who were finally able to get enrolled through the website didn’t start until January 1.
It’s the same misleading pattern we have seen time and again in the Obamacare debate: pluck some positive number out of context, claim victory and ignore any contradictory evidence.
Yes, Obamacare may be reducing the rate of uninsured, though by how much is anyone’s guess because the Obama administration only releases favorable data. And, of course, millions lost their coverage because of Obamacare.
But is the current decline a real achievement?
Look at the normal pattern. As the U.S. Census Bureau graph shows, since 1987 the uninsured rate has fluctuated between 14 percent and 15 percent of the population, with slight upticks and downticks, often the result of a strong or weak economy. In other words, after years of political turmoil and hundreds of billions of taxpayer dollars, the uninsured rate is almost back to its normal level.
Strong economic growth has been the best antidote to a rising rate of uninsured. Had Obama embraced pro-growth economic policies instead of anti-growth Obamacare, would the uninsured rate have declined even faster and further? The media appear to be too busy writing positive stories to ask such serious questions.
March 11, 2014