President Obama’s executive amnesty plan could severely damage the Democratic Party for years to come—and most Democrats, except the president, know it. But hey, Obama doesn’t have to get elected again, so he’s probably thinking why not?
You could see the Democratic angst when Obama talked about taking unilateral action last summer. Vulnerable Democrats running in red and purple states reportedly urged him to wait, fearing an anti-Democratic backlash at the polls. Obama acquiesced, threatening to act after the election. And even the electoral has had no impact on him.
For a man who claims to have heard not only the one-third of Americans who voted in November, but also the two-thirds who didn’t, he seems remarkably unfazed. Just consider how his tin ear could hurt Democrats and their party.
Anger over jobs
Black unemployment is currently 10.9 percent, nearly twice the 5.8 percent general unemployment rate. Hispanic unemployment is 6.8 percent.
While most of those in the U.S. illegally are working, many are in the underground economy. Legalizing millions of undocumented people, the large majority of whom will be Hispanic, will make them eligible to compete for regular, mostly low-skilled jobs in the regular economy, which could anger many of those who have been struggling to find a job.
To be clear, this is not an argument about whether immigrants are good for the economy. Most economists believe they bring needed skills and boost economic growth.
The point is that many who tend to vote Democratic will see Obama’s amnesty as a threat to their jobs or ability to find work and could create a real rift among the Democratic base, driving them to consider non-Democratic candidates in 2016 or, more likely, stay at home.
Straining state resources
Obama’s amnesty would exacerbate the already growing strain on state resources. While those who are here illegally are already entitled to certain taxpayer-funded benefits—such as public education and at least emergency health care—Obama’s plan would likely make them eligible for much more.
For example, would the newly legalized be eligible for unemployment benefits? Workers compensation? Medicaid? There are rumors that Obama would like to allow illegals to have access to taxpayer-provided subsidies under Obamacare.
Unlike the federal government, states have to balance their budgets—which means state funds are limited. Expanding benefits for some usually means reducing benefits for others, and that could create a backlash among the Democratic base. Of course, Democrats could call for higher taxes, but it’s precisely that high-tax agenda that got a number of Democratic governors and state legislators booted out in the election.
Public resentment
The public absolutely does not want the president to unilaterally grant amnesty. A September TIPP poll for Investor’s Business Daily found that only 39 percent of Democrats and, even more importantly, 26 percent of Hispanics supported unilateral amnesty. Fully 73 percent of those polled said Obama should work with Congress to address immigration. And Democratic responses were similar to the general population.
If the public reacts negatively to the amnesty, Republicans will make sure that voters know whom to blame. And Obama’s amnesty could do to the 2016 elections what Obamacare did to 2010 and 2014.
Democratic pollster Pat Caddell reacted recently to Obama’s amnesty threat by accusing him of being a “narcissist.” He’s not the only Democrat concerned that Obama’s unilateral and unconstitutional amnesty ploy will hurt Democrats, making it even harder for them to come back in 2016.
But the real tragedy behind Obama’s plan is that it will likely undermine comprehensive immigration reform, which the country desperately needs. We need a viable guest worker program and to raise the limits of skilled foreign labor. Obama’s effort will ensure we get neither.