First, some context: Projected federal revenue for 2025 is $5.42 trillion. That’s where all budget and spending discussions should begin, and it’s how most states begin their budget discussions—with a revenue projection.
But that’s not how we do it at the federal level. Regardless of which party controls Congress or the Executive Branch, the federal government starts by asking “how much more spending can we get away with?”
Here’s another data point: Total federal spending in 2019 was $4.45 trillion—about $1 trillion below 2025 revenue. That means if we could return spending to something just above 2019 levels, we would have a balanced budget—NOW. Instead, it looks like the Republican Congress and President Trump are going to add around $3 trillion in budget deficits (over ten years) to our almost $37 trillion national debt.
The experience of the past forty years tells us that both parties care more about “owning” each other than they do about fiscal responsibility. When one party controls both Congress and the White House, spending goes up more than it does when government is divided. It’s as true of Republicans as it is of Democrats, as we found out this week when the Republican House, filled with members who aspire to become social media influencers, podcasters, and Fox News commentators, voted to increase spending (and thus budget deficits) by supporting the “One Big Beautiful Bill.” Only two out of 220 Republicans voted against it.
Now, the 2017 tax cuts had to be extended. For one thing, they were great, and if they hadn’t been extended, the result would have been an enormous tax increase that would have harmed economic growth. But Congress must include the tax cut extension in the Senate’s budget reconciliation process to avoid filibuster and be able to pass it with their simple majority. And the budget process includes spending, which is where things go off the rails.
Because the problem, as always, is spending. Federal revenue grows at a remarkably steady pace. It’s reasonably predictable. But there is no political will to control spending, and that includes President Trump, who urged Republicans against further spending cuts.
There are a lot of good proposals in the One Big Beautiful Bill, and a lot of bad ones. There are ways the Senate can improve the bill, and we hope Senate Republicans will take up the task with boldness.
It’s also possible that, once the budget process is over, President Trump will ease his objections to entitlement reform and Congress can put us on a track to fiscal responsibility before Republicans lose their majority in 2026.
It’s also possible that pigs will fly.