Running as a viable independent or third-party presidential candidate isn’t easy but it’s doable—if you have enough money and a wide network of supporters.
And Donald Trump has both.
Trump’s biggest challenge, should he choose to go indy, would be to get on the ballot in all 50 states.
Here’s what you should know.
Lots of people are running for president
The U.S. Federal Elections Commission lists 560 candidates (and counting) who have filed to run for the 2016 presidential election. But come November 2016 you are likely to see maybe three to five names on the ballot in most states—the Republican and Democratic nominees, and possibly a few other candidates from Libertarian, Constitution and Green Parties.
States determine their election times and processes
One reason so few federally filed presidential candidates actually appear on the ballot is that Article 1, Section 4, of the U.S. Constitution empowers the states to set their own election ballot criteria. So potential candidates face not just the federal filing hurdle, which is fairly simple, but 51 state hurdles, including Washington D.C.
Some states make the process easy. For example, Colorado requires candidates to “submit an affidavit of intent and pay a $500 fee.” USA Today says that in 2008 Colorado had 16 presidential candidates on the ballot.
But other states require thousands of signatures to be gathered, which means the candidates either need a network of supporters in those states who can sign, and get others to sign, a petition, or pay people to get the signatures. And the candidates would likely need a well-staffed headquarters to coordinate those state efforts.
Requirements for primaries usually differ from the general election
If a candidate is running for the Republican or Democratic nomination, they face some additional hurdles because of the primaries.
The filing deadline for a state’s primary election is usually much earlier than if an independent candidate wanted to run in the general election. The nonprofit group Ballotpedia posts the various states’ primary filing deadlines, and several are near the end of this year. For example, six state primary filing deadlines are in November, and several more are in December.
But if a candidate is running as an independent or for a political party that chooses its candidate at its convention, then the filing deadline in most cases is the summer before the election. That gives Trump several months to make an indy decision before it’s too late.
The need for money and organization
One of the reasons so few of the presidential candidates actually make it on all state ballots in November is that there are numerous hurdles. Richard Winger, editor of Ballot Access News, tells me that U.S. Supreme Court decisions and many state changes have made it a little easier to get on a ballot. But ballot access still can be a challenge in many states.
If a candidate has a network of supporters willing to do the footwork in the states—or if the candidate is willing and able to hire people to do it—getting listed in all 50 states is doable. John Anderson, a former Republican who went independent, did it in 1980 and Ross Perot did it in 1992 and again in 1996.
Trump has both money and supporters, so he could almost certainly make it on the ballot in every state—if he didn’t wait too long to announce his independent run.
Do the two major parties use their power to squash third-party and independent runs?
Former Rep. Ron Paul, a one-time Libertarian Party presidential candidate, thinks so. “Even candidates able to comply with onerous ballot-access rules must devote so many resources to simply getting on the ballot that their ability to communicate their ideas to the general public is severely limited,” said Paul.
In 2004 Paul sponsored the Voter Freedom Act, which was intended to set national standards for federal elections.
I’m guessing that if Trump falls short in several of the primary elections, he likely won’t make an independent run. He has to know those candidates have virtually no chance of winning. On the other hand, as a third-party or independent candidate he’d get lots of media attention, which just might make it worth his while.