Top political news is the move by the Texas Legislature to redraw its congressional districts outside of the normal ten-year cycle. Texas’ efforts are clearly political in nature; the Republican-controlled legislature intends to increase the number of Republican seats while diminishing the number of Democrat seats.
Texas state legislators of the Democrat persuasion have responded with truancy, thus denying a quorum for the Texas House and causing much drama and entertainment for political types.
How should we think about all this?
The Constitution mandates proportional representation in the House of Representatives, and other laws freeze House membership at 435 and require that states review and adjust proportional representation after each decennial census. But no federal law prevents a state from redistricting more frequently as it might see fit.
While the current clamor is about Texas manipulating its districts to maintain a Republican advantage in Congress, and blue states threatening to respond, there’s an important reality behind the Texas effort that no one is talking about.
Since the April 2020 Census, the population of Texas has grown by more than 2.15 million people (as of July 2024.) That’s a 7.5 percent increase in population, and that estimate is over a year old. Since the Texas population grew by more than half a million people from 2023 to 2024, it’s possible that the current Texas population has increased by 2.75 million since the last census. Based on current congressional district populations, that’s nearly four additional congressional seats that Texas is entitled to now. And we’re only halfway to the 2030 census. In 2030, could Texas gain 7 new congressional seats? Easily.
Yes, congressional seats are only reallocated among the states at the decennial census. But since the Texas population currently justifies several more congressional seats, is it really all that outrageous for Texas to be redistricting now? Hardly.
Thanks to the wisdom of the Founders and their federal design, each state can pursue its own policies within the limits of the Constitution. Laboratories of democracy and all. As a result, many who value low taxes, less regulation, and more economic opportunity are relocating to states that prioritize these policies, resulting in a net migration from blue states to red states. A brand new website project run by our friends at Unleash Prosperity is documenting this Big Sort, and it’s worth a look.
So long as Democrat-run cities and states pursue policies that punish work, investment, family creation and business formation, they had better get used to losing on redistricting.
Democrats often criticize the Senate for not reflecting proportional representation. But as they continue to lose at the proportional representation game, they may develop a newfound appreciation for the Senate.