The average winter temperature in Germany is 32° F. And cold waves from Siberia can plunge temperatures to -5° F. That’s mighty cold. Cold enough that Germans will wish they had plenty of natural gas flowing to keep their homes and buildings warm.
But that natural gas may not be coming—at least not without strings attached.
The European Union gets about 40 percent of its natural gas from Russia. But Germany gets more than half of its gas from Russia, according to the Wall Street Journal.
While several EU countries have wisely been looking for alternative gas sources, including from the United States, Germany has doubled down on its Russian dependence.
Russia’s Nordstream 2 gas pipeline is completed and waiting German regulatory approval. It runs directly from Russia to Germany via the Baltic Sea, generally tracking the older Nordstream 1 pipeline. Germany is currently the world’s largest purchaser of Russian natural gas, and the Nordstream 2 could double the country’s purchases.
Germany produces very little of its own oil and gas, depending on imports for 98 percent of its oil and 92 percent of its gas supply, according to CNBC. And while Germany gets a large percentage of its power generation from renewables, those imports are still important for heating homes and buildings. And Germany is the largest manufacturer in the EU, relying on imported fossil fuels to keep its factories—and therefore its economy—humming.
And yet, the country is betting its economy on Russia’s—that is, Putin’s—good will.
That’s a poor bet.
Only last month London’s The Guardian ran with this headline: “Kremlin denies restricting gas supplies to Europe for political gain.”
The article explained: “The Kremlin has denied using Russia’s gas resources to turn the screw on Europe, after gas in a pipeline to Germany switched direction to flow eastwards for a second day, keeping prices near record highs as midwinter approaches.”
But of course the Kremlin denied it. Just as it denies any ill intentions by amassing more than 100,000 troops on Ukraine’s border. Just as it denied the soldiers that took over the Crimea in 2014 were Russian proxies. And we’ll see more such incidents that Russia will deny—with a wink and a nod.
Germany so far has been spared the manufactured gas shortages that have hit other parts of the EU, perhaps giving it a false sense of security.
But recent high oil and gas prices have been filling Russia’s coffers, allowing it to engage in even more political mischief.
Germany’s dependence on Russian fossil fuels has helped finance Russia’s growing aggression. By doubling down on that dependence and not looking for alternative sources, Germany may ultimately become complicit in that mischief.
January 25, 2022