The U.S. Census Bureau recently released a new report on domestic migration. The Bureau’s take is that the pandemic-related out-migration of some of the country’s largest counties has slowed and, in some cases, reversed. The Census Bureau titled its report “Growth in the Nation’s Largest Counties Rebounds in 2022.” Let’s just call that the generous interpretation.
What is actually happening, as the Wall Street Journal figure below shows, is that large cities in blue states—which are invariably led by progressive mayors and city councils—are still losing people. The beneficiaries are the suburbs and large cities in red states, even though most of those cities are also run by progressives.
The fact is red-state elected officials keep their large, progressive cities from imposing most of the virtue-signaling, leftist policies those cities would like to impose.
As the figure shows, of the 25 largest metro areas, 10 saw their populations continue to shrink from 2021 to 2022. Most of the blue-state big cities are in turmoil, infected with rampant crime and homelessness, not to mention high taxes.
Those problems led New Yorkers to choose less-progressive Eric Adams for mayor, and why Chicago residents recently rejected Mayor Lori Lightfoot’s bid for reelection.
Of the 14 cities that saw a population increase, eight are in red states. (Arizona recently elected a Democratic governor, but she entered office after 2022.)
Of the eight major metro areas with the largest growth—Dallas, Houston, Atlanta, Phoenix, Tampa, Orlando, Charlotte and San Antonio—seven had Republican state governments in 2022.
Yes, a handful of blue-state metro areas experienced some modest growth. But note that these are “metro areas” in the Journal graph. The Census Bureau is looking at counties, which may include some of the suburbs. And that’s one of the important take-aways. In some cases, people are fleeing failing cities and moving to the suburbs, thereby escaping progressive mayors and city councils.
As the Journal says, “The suburbs of big cities and small- and medium-size metropolitan areas continued to claim most of the nation’s growth.”
People are voting with their feet, fleeing big cities in blue states for the suburbs, or more often, for big red states. That shift should be a lesson to blue-state leaders and their big cities, but it probably won’t be.
April 4, 2023